Decision model · v3
Manchego
One pass. Every option.
Manchego V3: a 4B typed-decision model. State, question and options in; probabilities out, in one forward pass.
- Parameters
- 4B
- Weights
- bf16 · 9.3 GB
- Trained options
- 2–16 · SemIf
- Passes
- One per question
- License
- Apache-2.0
- Release
- V3 · 30 Sep 2026
V3, in brief
Manchego evaluates options supplied by your software. A single forward pass reads the whole question, then a softmax over the offered option-code logits returns their probabilities. Choice, yes/no conditions (noul) and ordered scores share that readout.
V3 starts again from the untrained Qwen3.5-4B base. It uses a fresh rank-16 LoRA, the SemIf direct-options prompt, harder computed families, answer judging, more public corpora and self-distilled replay. It is not continued training from V2.1.
State, criterion, options
SemIf supplies a system message and one JSON user message with evidence, criterion and lettered options. The trained path covers 2–16 options with a nonempty state. The server reports which contract each question received.
- Choice
- Probability for each supplied option
- Noul
P(true), with true and false as the two values- Score
- A distribution over ordered levels; the readout is its expected level
- Fallback
- 17–255 options or an empty state use an untrained state-first prompt
Public gains, with clear boundaries
| Evaluation | Rows | v2.1 | v3 | Reported contrast · 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JevBench · public decisions | 231 | 0.805 | 0.857 | +0.052 [+0.004, +0.102] |
| Public8 · real-text datasets | 1,600 | 0.732 | 0.753 | +0.021 [+0.002, +0.039] |
| 27 held-out task definitions | 1,561 | 0.701 | 0.709 | +0.007 [−0.016, +0.031] |
| 24 sealed unseen tasks | 5,397 | 0.659 | 0.695 | +0.042 [−0.018, +0.107] |
| Sealed computed-family draws | 1,193 | 0.795 | 0.762 | −0.033 [−0.060, −0.005] |
The public JevBench and Public8 comparisons resolve improvements over V2.1. Held-out task-type and sealed unseen-task intervals still cross zero, and the sealed computed-family comparison resolves a regression.
These are the project’s own matched-runtime evaluations. The public JevBench accuracy is not an official JevBench composite score. V2.1’s historical official score of 68.8 belongs to that earlier version and evaluation regime.
The model card documents prompt changes, grouped resampling, runtime, earlier task exposure and merged-weight numerics. Read the published evaluation before comparing these rows with another leaderboard.
Read the probabilities in context
V3 improves the public comparisons, but it is overconfident on unfamiliar task definitions. On the 27 held-out tasks, mean confidence is 0.829 against accuracy of 0.709; expected calibration error is 0.129, versus 0.083 for V2.1.
The packaged bf16 serving map uses temperatures of 1.5 for choice, 0.2 for yes/no, and 1.0 for score. The yes/no setting deliberately sharpens uncertain answers for the published scoring rule; it is not a general calibration guarantee. A positive temperature does not change the winning option.
Every evaluation number reproduced here uses temperature 1. Set --temperature-map off to request that policy, and inspect the temperatures and contract reported with each response. Consult the pinned format card before assuming a map applies to different weight bytes.
| T = 1 calibration check | v2.1 ECE | v3 ECE | v3 confidence | v3 accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JevBench · public run | 0.072 | 0.055 | 0.854 | 0.857 |
| Public8 | 0.053 | 0.055 | 0.809 | 0.753 |
| 27 held-out tasks | 0.083 | 0.129 | 0.829 | 0.709 |
| 24 sealed unseen tasks | 0.098 | 0.141 | 0.836 | 0.695 |
Choose a deployment format
| V3 format | Size | 80 task rows · accuracy / CE | 200 text rows · accuracy / CE |
|---|---|---|---|
| bf16 · Transformers | 9.3 GB | 0.963 / 0.141 | 0.785 / 0.602 |
| MLX · 8-bit | 4.5 GB | 0.963 / 0.136 | 0.785 / 0.602 |
| MLX · 4-bit | 2.4 GB | 0.887 / 0.239 | 0.765 / 0.715 |
The task rows come from families V3 trains on. The text check uses development rows from earlier corpora: three also appear in V3’s training data, and 50 come from banking77, which V3 did not train on. Read these as conversion checks, alongside the public and sealed evaluations on the main card.
The merged bf16 model is 9.3 GB. The MLX builds are text-only Apple-silicon conversions: 4.5 GB at 8 bits and 2.4 GB at 4 bits. Four-bit results are lower on both published conversion checks; choose it when the memory budget requires it.
Fig. 01 · Lineage
From base model to every format
- Qwen/Qwen3.5-4BUpstream · Apache-2.0
- V3 · fresh rank-16 LoRA255,991 rows · 99.4M prompt tokens
Serve the pinned V3 release
Use manchego-serve 0.2.0 with contract semif. The examples below explicitly disable serving temperature maps to match the evaluation policy. Setup downloads and verifies weights; requests then run offline.
# In a manchego-serve v0.2.0 checkout, with the appropriate backend installed
manchego-serve-download --repo oraculumai/Manchego --revision v3 --out ./manchego-v3
manchego-serve --model ./manchego-v3 --revision v3 --contract semif --temperature-map offcurl http://127.0.0.1:8000/v1/systemone \
-H 'content-type: application/json' \
-d '{"model":"manchego-3","state":"A customer reports a broken blender.",
"questions":{"route":{"type":"choice","instructions":"Which team should handle this?",
"criteria":{"returns":"defective items and refunds","shipping":"delivery issues","billing":"payments"}}}}'Read answers.route.probabilities for the option distribution. Responses report per-question contracts, temperatures and weight verification. The schema demonstration is not a claim that a model runs on this website.
CUDA graph speedups are platform-specific. The release keeps graphs off by default: the published Linux A10 test was slower with them, while the Windows RTX 5090 test was faster. Neither result is a universal latency promise.
A fresh run from the base
- Training rows
- 255,991
- Prompt tokens
- 99,362,993
- Updates
- 8,771 · final checkpoint
- Adaptation
- Rank 16 · 14,376,960 trainable parameters
- Hardware
- One NVIDIA GH200
- Selection
- One run; no checkpoint selected within it
Training combines computed decision families, answer judging, original public annotations, domain generators, calibration rows, and replay toward the untrained base’s probabilities. Self-distilled replay contributes 15% of the estimated prompt tokens.
Some upstream datasets include model-generated text or labels. The published card describes those sources, the inherited phrase audit, development-informed design, the MathDial reproduction probe, and the account holder’s release decisions. These disclosures are part of the release, not an assertion that every source is interchangeable.
What the release does not establish
- SemIf is the trained contract for 2–16 options and a nonempty state. Larger menus, up to 255 options, and empty states use a state-first fallback that V3 did not train on.
- The longest training prompt was 6,386 tokens. Longer inputs are untested; the server’s larger input limit is not evidence of model quality at that length.
- English text was trained and evaluated. Images and unrestricted text generation are outside the measured decision interface.
- Use application-specific checks and human review for consequential decisions. Arithmetic and date calculations belong in code.
Published weaknesses
01Task transfer remains uncertain
The paired intervals on held-out and sealed unseen task definitions include zero. The public benchmark gains do not establish a general improvement on unfamiliar tasks.
02A resolved out-of-distribution regression
On fresh sealed draws from four of the project’s computed families, V3 scores 0.762 against V2.1’s 0.795.
03Confidence can exceed accuracy
Unfamiliar-task calibration is worse than V2.1. Yes/no serving temperatures can sharpen uncertainty further.
04Large menus use an untrained fallback
More than 16 options or an empty state selects the state-first contract. It is supported by the server but was not V3’s training prompt.
05Public and official results differ
The 0.857 public JevBench accuracy is a project-run result. V3 has no official maintainer-run JevBench result in the verified release card.
06One run and one seed
The release is the final update of one training run; no second seed was reported.
07Exact arithmetic is unreliable
Compute dates, costs and quantities in software, then ask the model to judge a clearly defined choice.
08Serving numerics matter
Padded batches, quantization, and CUDA graph padding can move probabilities. Score one prompt at a time when exact reproducibility matters.
09Knowledge remains limited
A 4B decision model can still lack the facts needed for a reliable judgment.
Reproduce the release
- Release revision
- 53251b0c118d28bfe7908eac1b3a02c08a877edc
- Prompt
- SemIf direct-options-v1
- Licence
- Apache-2.0
- Model card reviewed
- 2026-10-23
The base is Qwen3.5-4B; the prompt format comes from SemIf (MIT). Full training-data attributions and declarations are in the published NOTICE. Manchego is independent of TypeSafe AI; using the System One interface does not imply endorsement.
Current and earlier releases
Fig. 02 · Release history
The release and its predecessor
v2.1
Previous release
The earlier calibration-focused release remains at its own tag, with its original prompt and evidence.
v3
Fresh run, SemIf contract
Trained again from Qwen3.5-4B with a new rank-16 LoRA, about 100M prompt tokens and matched-runtime public and sealed evaluations.
About this page
Summarized from the public model card and its published files. Tagged release 30 Sep 2026; reviewed 23 Oct 2026. The Hugging Face card is the source of truth for licenses and current details.
Upstream: Qwen / Qwen3.5-4B